Politics

The biggest political probability moves across the prediction markets in the last 24 hours.

▾Politics$513.5k

$370.9k▾Venezuela(2 events)

$368.9k▾Venezuela leader end of 2026?

$188.9kDelcy Rodríguez36¢▲ 23.5pp

$180kNicolás Maduro63¢▼ 21.3pp

$2k▾Maduro Prison Time?

$1.6kNo prison time78¢▲ 26.0pp

$34760+13¢▼ 23.0pp

$29.1k▾Saudi Arabia(2 events)

$28.6kSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?34¢▼ 17.0pp

$448Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?64¢▲ 16.0pp

$7.6k▾European Union (2 events)

$6.3kEU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?66¢▼ 11.5pp

$1.3kEU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?17¢▼ 33.0pp

$6.2k▾Foreign Policy(3 events)

$5.5k▾Trump meets with Danish PM by...?

$2.3kDecember 3184¢▲ 18.5pp

$3.2kSeptember 3084¢▲ 15.0pp

$484Will Trump meet with Jens-Frederik Nielsen by September 30, 2026?66¢▲ 7.5pp

$206Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?23¢▲ 1.0pp

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$93.5k▾Others(33 events)

$15.2kTrump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?21¢▲ 19.0pp

$12.8k▾How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (9/14-9/20)

$5k533¢▲ 20.0pp

$3.8k458¢▼ 22.0pp

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$8.8kWill Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 39.5 on Sep 20, 2026?29¢▲ 20.0pp

$6.9kWill the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy)52¢▲ 11.0pp

$6.2k▾How many times will Trump visit his D.C. golf club in Sep 2026?

$5k158¢▲ 2.0pp

$1.2k239¢▼ 7.0pp

$6kWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City before Oct 1, 2026?91¢▼ 6.0pp

$6k▾Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/14 - 9/20)

$3.9kAbove 2090¢▲ 34.0pp

$2.1kAbove 2549¢▲ 28.0pp

$5kWill Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?10¢▲ 5.8pp

$4.9kWill there be exactly 1 North Korea test in September 2026?1¢▼ 41.2pp

$2.2kWill Lauren Boebert drop out of the CO-04 race?3¢▼ 17.4pp

$2k▾Who will Trump speak to in September?

$1.3kElon Musk88¢▲ 6.5pp

$737Volodymyr Zelenskyy82¢▼ 15.2pp

$1.9kVenezuela leader end of 2026? — Delcy Rodríguez34¢▲ 19.7pp

$1.9k▾Who will Trump meet with in September?

$517Mark Carney25¢▲ 3.5pp

$1.4kVolodymyr Zelenskyy62¢▼ 25.0pp

$1.9kWill there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026?78¢▲ 78.0pp

$1.9kWill there be more than 200 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026?18¢▼ 21.0pp

$1.6kWill it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada and the European Union jointly announce that they have begun, or agreed to begin, formal negotiations toward a new formal association status, including associate membership, a unique alliance, or another equivalent new institutional status before Jan 1, 2027?41¢▼ 20.0pp

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