Politics

The biggest political probability moves across the prediction markets in the last 24 hours.

▾Politics$4.8M

$4.8M▾Others(19 events)

$3.5MWill Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?97¢▲ 63.5pp

$1MWill Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?99¢▲ 34.3pp

$33.4k▾How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

$15.5kAt least 1412¢▼ 69.0pp

$11.4kAt least 151¢▼ 68.0pp

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$32.4k▾How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?

$11kAt least 25895¢▲ 84.0pp

$4.2kAt least 25498¢▲ 79.0pp

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$16.3kWill Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 39.1 on Nov 4, 2026?93¢▲ 41.0pp

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$61.1k▾Election Night(4 events)

$30.1k▾AP calls the House by...?

$9.8kNovember 4, 3:59 AM100¢▲ 56.0pp

$13.2kNovember 4, 12:59 AM0¢▼ 52.5pp

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$18.3k▾AP calls the Senate by...?

$8.5kNovember 3, 11:59 PM100¢▲ 48.0pp

$9.8kNovember 4, 3:59 AM100¢▲ 41.0pp

$8.7kWill Mississippi be the closest Senate race in 2026?89¢▲ 86.4pp

$4k▾Which Senate races will be within 5%?

$1.4kFlorida (Special)99¢▲ 49.2pp

$2.6kTexas1¢▼ 62.0pp