Politics

The biggest political probability moves across the prediction markets in the last 24 hours.

▾Politics$1.4M

$1.2M▾Others(25 events)

$455k▾Keir Starmer departure announced?

$418.4kBefore Jun 23, 202699¢▲ 16.0pp

$19.3kBefore Jul 23, 202699¢▲ 11.0pp

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$299k▾Starmer out by..?

$274.2kDecember 310¢▼ 97.4pp

$24.8kJune 300¢▼ 92.0pp

$50.7k▾When will Anthropic restore Fable 5 access for US customers?

$15.1kBefore Jun 27, 202624¢▼ 23.0pp

$1.4kBefore Jul 17, 202658¢▼ 22.0pp

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$40.2k▾Israeli parliament dissolved by...?

$2kJuly 3172¢▲ 8.0pp

$1.2kJuly 1551¢▼ 14.5pp

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$22.8k▾Colombia Presidential Election

$14.7kAbelardo de la Espriella97¢▲ 8.8pp

$8.1kIván Cepeda Castro3¢▼ 9.7pp

$8.3k▾Trump's approval rating on Jun 26, 2026?

$5.4kBelow 39.615¢▲ 9.0pp

$2.9k40.2 to 40.430¢▼ 5.0pp

$7.5k▾How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (6/21 - 6/27)

$3.1kAbove 179¢▲ 21.0pp

$2.5kAbove 243¢▼ 35.0pp

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$183.3k▾Peace Deal(2 events)

$101.8k▾Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?

$6.9kSteve Witkoff12¢▼ 28.0pp

$34.4kJD Vance12¢▼ 23.0pp

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$81.5k▾Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

$10.8kMishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah24¢▲ 14.5pp

$36.2kMohammed bin Salman13¢▼ 20.5pp

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$36.2k▾Ukraine Map(3 events)

$34.6k▾Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by...?

$25.7kJune 3098¢▲ 90.7pp

$8.9kJuly 3198¢▲ 78.0pp

$925Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?27¢▼ 10.0pp

$679▾Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...?

$422June 3021¢▼ 28.4pp

$256July 3140¢▼ 26.5pp

$28.3k▾Strait of Hormuz(4 events)

$24kWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?62¢▲ 17.5pp

$2.2kWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?13¢▼ 7.5pp

$1.3kWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?70¢▲ 17.0pp

$920Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?38¢▲ 15.0pp

$1.8k▾Trump Presidency(2 events)

$1.6kIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?8¢▲ 3.6pp

$234Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?17¢▼ 22.0pp