Will an EU country win Eurovision?

What: This is a market on whether the country that wins Eurovision belongs to the European Union. Why: Despite being called 'Eurovision', countries from outside the EU can participate and win. This includes non-EU European countries like Switzerland or Norway and others from outside Europe like Australia and Israel. The goal of this market is to estimate the likelihood of EU member countries to win. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the country whose candidate wins Eurovision 2026 is a current member of the European Union at the time when the winner is determined. For the purposes of this market, a country will be considered part of the European Union if they are listed in the official EU website: https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/eu-countries_en. If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.