What is the current probability for "Croatia vs Portugal"?

Current Gemini odds for "Croatia vs Portugal": Portugal advances 74%, Croatia advances 29% (top 2 of 2 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/3/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from gemini's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/gemini/112923. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

soontrade on Gemini

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event2 outcomes

Croatia vs Portugal

·Sports·ends Jul 3, 2026

vol cum

$51.6k

vol 24h

$47.9k

outcomes

ends

Jul 3, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

Croatia vs Portugal

World Cup

marketselected outcome

Portugal advances

rank #1

74¢

▲ 4.0pp

24h change

vol cum

—

vol 24h

—

spread

0.03

ends

Jul 3, 2026

If Portugal wins its Men's World Cup match against Croatia scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, including if the match is decided in extra time or a penalty shootout, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to No. The Underlying is the official result of the specified sporting event. Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event, ESPN, Fox Sports, and the official broadcast partner of the event. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date, including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified, the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. View the full rules.

timeline

opened · Jun 28, 2026closing sooncloses · Jul 3, 2026

Portugal advances · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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