What is the current probability for "BTC price on July 4"?

Current Gemini odds for "BTC price on July 4": $61,500 or above 93%, $61,750 or above 89%, $62,000 or above 81% (top 3 of 8 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/4/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from gemini's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/gemini/122804. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

soontrade on Gemini

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event8 outcomes

BTC price on July 4

·Crypto·ends Jul 4, 2026

vol cum

$16.9k

vol 24h

$16.9k

outcomes

ends

Jul 4, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 8

Interval BTC price prediction event expiring on July 4, 2026 at 5pm ET

Bitcoin

marketselected outcome

$61,500 or above

rank #1

93¢

▼ 4.0pp

24h change

vol cum

—

vol 24h

—

spread

0.02

ends

Jul 4, 2026

If the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is $61,500 or above on July 4, 2026 at 5pm ET, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to No. If no eligible trade occurs during the contract window, this contract will resolve based on the most recent traded price prior. Outcome verified against the GRR-KAIKO_RFR_BTCUSD_60S index. View the full rules.

timeline

opened · Jul 3, 2026closing sooncloses · Jul 4, 2026

$61,500 or above · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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