Question 1

What is the current probability for "How low will the S&P get this year?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Gemini odds for "How low will the S&P get this year?": 6,500 or below 99%, 6,300 or below 99%, 6,600 or below 99% (top 3 of 8 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from gemini's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/gemini/3874. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

How low will the S&P get this year?

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