Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?
As of 23:09 UTC on 8 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?” at 10% (-27pp in 24h). The market has $4.4k in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
If the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year generic constant-maturity tenor is at least 5.50% on any business day from October 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM EDT through October 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM EDT, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market uses the 10-year generic constant-maturity Treasury tenor and the U.S. Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate. The observation period is from October 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM EDT through October 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM EDT, inclusive. A published rate of 5.50% or higher for any business day in that period satisfies the threshold; intraday values are not considered. Rates are expressed to two decimal places. Revisions after expiration are not considered. Treasury does not publish on weekends or federal holidays; the contract's preceding-business-day provision applies. If the payout condition occurs, expiration may move earlier under Rule 7.2. Otherwise, expiration is 10:00 AM ET one week after the final day of the observation period. Settlement is no later than the following day, subject to Rule 7.1.