Question 1

What is the current probability for "How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?" are 4.89% or above 89%, 4.87% or above 87%, 4.9% or above 84% — 2 of 21 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on Oct 2, 2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?

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