Question 1

What is the current probability for "How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?" are 4.87% or below 91%, 4.88% or below 89%, 4.86% or below 88% — 3 of 30 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on Oct 31, 2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KX2YRDIRLM-26OCT30L. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

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