Will the 30Y US Treasury yield hit 6% in October?
As of 01:12 UTC on 7 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will the 30Y US Treasury yield hit 6% in October?” at 11% (+11pp in 24h). The market has $6.3k in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
If the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year generic constant-maturity tenor is at least 6.00% on any business day from October 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM EDT through October 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM EDT, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market uses the 30-year generic constant-maturity Treasury tenor and the U.S. Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate. The observation period is from October 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM EDT through October 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM EDT, inclusive. A published rate of 6.00% or higher for any business day in that period satisfies the threshold; intraday values are not considered. Rates are expressed to two decimal places. Revisions after expiration are not considered. Treasury does not publish on weekends or federal holidays; the contract's preceding-business-day provision applies. If the payout condition occurs, expiration may move earlier under Rule 7.2. Otherwise, expiration is 10:00 AM ET one week after the final day of the observation period. Settlement is no later than the following day, subject to Rule 7.1.