Question 1

What is the current probability for "AI capability growth before July?"?

Accepted Answer

pdata aggregates live probability data for "AI capability growth before July?" from kalshi. See the markets list on this page for current values, refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 7/1/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXAISPIKE-26B. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

AI capability growth before July?

Markets

At least 1525 score

At least 1550 score

At least 1575 score

At least 1500 score

At least 1600 score

At least 1700 score

At least 1625 score

At least 1650 score

At least 1675 score