What is the current probability for "Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?": Harry Kane 54%, Lamine Yamal 24%, Kylian Mbappe 12% (top 3 of 31 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Dec 31, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXBALLONDOR-26. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event31 outcomes

Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?

·Sports·ends Dec 31, 2027

vol cum

$9M

vol 24h

$161.9k

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 31

marketselected outcome

Harry Kane

rank #1

54¢

▼ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.6M

vol 24h

$10.7k

spread

0.01

ends

Dec 31, 2027

If Harry Kane wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jan 24, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2027

Harry Kane · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history