What is the current probability for "What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 3, 2026?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 3, 2026?" are Magnitude of at least 6.4 10%, Magnitude of at least 7.0 4% — 5 of 10 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Oct 3, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXBIGGESTQUAKE-03SEP26. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event10 outcomes

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 3, 2026?

·Climate and Weather·ends Oct 3, 2026

vol cum

$10.5k

vol 24h

$10.5k

outcomes

ends

Oct 3, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

marketselected outcome

Magnitude of at least 5.2

rank #1 · resolved: yes

99¢

▲ 99.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.6k

vol 24h

$1.6k

spread

1.00

ends

Oct 3, 2026

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Sep 3, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Sep 2, 2026closedresolved · Sep 3, 2026

Magnitude of at least 5.2 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history