Question 1

What is the current probability for "What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 30, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 30, 2026?" are Magnitude of at least 5.8 43%, Magnitude of at least 6.0 26%, Magnitude of at least 6.2 18% — 3 of 10 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on Oct 30, 2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXBIGGESTQUAKE-30SEP26. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 30, 2026?

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