What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?"?

"Yes" is currently 3% on Kalshi, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/31/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXBTC2026200-27JAN01. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?

·Crypto

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$6.7M

vol 24h

$18k

spread

0.01

ends

Jan 31, 2027

Yes 3¢

No 97¢

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $200000 starting 2025-10-10 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

timeline

opened · Oct 10, 2025opencloses · Jan 31, 2027

similar markets