What is the current probability for "When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?": Before 2028 71%, Before Apr 1, 2027 41%, Before May 1, 2027 37% (top 3 of 15 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jan 8, 2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

↗

event15 outcomes

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

·Finance·ends Jan 8, 2028

vol cum

$1.2M

vol 24h

$18.6k

outcomes

ends

Jan 8, 2028

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 15

marketselected outcome

Before 2028

rank #1

71¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$20.7k

vol 24h

$136

spread

0.02

ends

Jan 8, 2028

If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jun 25, 2026opencloses · Jan 8, 2028

Before 2028 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history