What is the current probability for "Gold 15 min · $4,242.21 target"?

"Yes" is currently 95% (+42pp in the last 24h) on Kalshi, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/12/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXGOLD15M-26AUG051330. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Gold 15 min · $4,242.21 target

·Commodities

95%

▲ 42.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$41.1k

vol 24h

$41.1k

spread

1.00

ends

Aug 12, 2026

Yes 95¢

No 5¢

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on Aug 5, 2026 at 1:30 PM EDT is at least the close price of the 1-minute Pyth GOLD candlestick at 1:15 PM EDT on August 5, 2026 USD/|| Unit ||, then the market resolves to Yes.

The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. When confirming the settlement value, note the close price for the 1-minute candlestick at a given time is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading during 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, then the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

timeline

opened · Aug 5, 2026closedresolved · Aug 5, 2026