What is the current probability for "Gold price on August 04, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Gold price on August 04, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET" are Above $4065.99 88%, Above $4071.99 88%, Above $4081.99 82% — 4 of 40 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/11/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXGOLDH-26AUG0414. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event40 outcomes

Gold price on August 04, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET

·Commodities·ends Aug 11, 2026

vol cum

$16.8k

vol 24h

$16.8k

outcomes

ends

Aug 11, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 40

marketselected outcome

Above $4073.99

rank #1 · resolved: yes

99¢

▲ 99.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$440

vol 24h

$440

spread

1.00

ends

Aug 11, 2026

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 04, 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT is above 4073.99 USD/ounce, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Aug 4, 2026closedresolved · Aug 4, 2026

Above $4073.99 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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