What is the current probability for "Gold price on August 12, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Gold price on August 12, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET" are Above $4377.99 93%, Above $4389.99 93%, Above $4391.99 93% — 13 of 40 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/19/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXGOLDH-26AUG1204. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event40 outcomes

Gold price on August 12, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET

·Commodities·ends Aug 19, 2026

vol cum

$18.2k

vol 24h

$18.2k

outcomes

ends

Aug 19, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 40

marketselected outcome

Above $4365.99

rank #1 · resolved: yes

99¢

▲ 99.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$200

vol 24h

$200

spread

1.00

ends

Aug 19, 2026

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 12, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT is above 4365.99 USD/ounce, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Aug 12, 2026closedresolved · Aug 12, 2026

Above $4365.99 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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