What is the current probability for "Where will the minimum temperature be below 50 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Where will the minimum temperature be below 50 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?": San Francisco 50%, Seattle 49%, Denver 8% (top 3 of 20 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/13/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

↗

event20 outcomes

Where will the minimum temperature be below 50 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?

·Climate and Weather·ends Jul 13, 2026

vol cum

$29.5k

vol 24h

$29.3k

outcomes

ends

Jul 13, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 20

marketselected outcome

San Francisco

rank #1

United States

50¢

▲ 50.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$59

vol 24h

$58

spread

0.44

ends

Jul 13, 2026

If the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 4, 2026, is less than 50°F according to the Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jun 24, 2026opencloses · Jul 13, 2026

San Francisco · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history