What is the current probability for "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)" are Above 25 93%, Above 30 89%, Above 35 49% — 3 of 11 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 11/23/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG23. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event11 outcomes

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)

·Politics·ends Nov 23, 2026

vol cum

$98k

vol 24h

$19.3k

outcomes

ends

Nov 23, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 11

marketselected outcome

Above 40

rank #7

IranOman

12¢

▲ 6.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$9.4k

vol 24h

$3.4k

spread

0.04

ends

Nov 23, 2026

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 40 from Aug 17, 2026 to Aug 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Aug 14, 2026opencloses · Nov 23, 2026

Above 40 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history