What is the current probability for "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/14 - 9/20)"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/14 - 9/20)" are Above 20 91%, Above 25 44%, Above 30 10% — 2 of 11 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Dec 21, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP20. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event11 outcomes

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/14 - 9/20)

·Politics·ends Dec 21, 2026

vol cum

$220.7k

vol 24h

$39.7k

outcomes

ends

Dec 21, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 11

marketselected outcome

Above 10

rank #1

99¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$28.5k

vol 24h

$2k

spread

0.01

ends

Dec 21, 2026

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Sep 11, 2026opencloses · Dec 21, 2026

Above 10 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history