Will a Category 4 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?
As of 22:24 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will a Category 4 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?” at 1%. The market has $57 in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini.
If a Category 4 hurricane makes landfall in Tampa (defined coastal area: the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida) from October 9, 2026 at 4:00:00 PM EDT until, but excluding, December 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, as reported by the National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.
The specified coastal area for Tampa is the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida. The hurricane must be exactly Category 4 at landfall; a higher category does not satisfy this market. The center must cross this coastline from water to land. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules. The coverage period starts at listing and ends immediately before December 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
