What is the current probability for "How low will the S&P get this year?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "How low will the S&P get this year?" are 6,500 or below 94%, 6,300 or below 12%, 6,100 or below 10% — 2 of 8 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jan 8, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXINXMINY-01JAN2027. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event8 outcomes

How low will the S&P get this year?

·Finance·ends Jan 8, 2027

vol cum

$853k

vol 24h

$17.1k

outcomes

ends

Jan 8, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 8

marketselected outcome

6,600 or below

rank #1 · resolved: yes

99¢

vol cum

$31.5k

vol 24h

spread

1.00

ends

Jan 8, 2027

If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending on Jan 1, 2027 is below 6600.01, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jan 1, 2026closedresolved · Mar 19, 2026

6,600 or below · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

similar markets

No similar markets for sports & price markets.