What is the current probability for "Will the S&P finish positive this year?"?

"Yes" is currently 84% (+5pp in the last 24h) on Kalshi, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/8/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXINXPOS-26DEC31H1900. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will the S&P finish positive this year?

·Finance

84%

▲ 5.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$925.4k

vol 24h

$25.2k

spread

0.02

ends

Jan 8, 2027

Yes 84¢

No 16¢

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 6845.50, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.

timeline

opened · Jan 6, 2026opencloses · Jan 8, 2027

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