What is the current probability for "Arnaboldi vs Ciavarella"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Arnaboldi vs Ciavarella": Federico Arnaboldi 70%, Niccolo Ciavarella 30% (top 2 of 2 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/18/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXITFMATCH-26AUG04ARNCIA. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event2 outcomes

Arnaboldi vs Ciavarella

·Sports·ends Aug 18, 2026

vol cum

$51.9k

vol 24h

$33.8k

outcomes

ends

Aug 18, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

Federico Arnaboldi

rank #1

70¢

▼ 18.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$17.6k

vol 24h

$10.8k

spread

0.01

ends

Aug 18, 2026

If Federico Arnaboldi wins the Arnaboldi vs Ciavarella professional tennis match in the 2026 M25 Fano Round of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Aug 3, 2026opencloses · Aug 18, 2026

Federico Arnaboldi · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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