What is the current probability for "Baumgartner vs Muerner"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Baumgartner vs Muerner": Sam Kydd Baumgartner 84%, Derek Muerner 15% (top 2 of 2 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 9/6/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXITFMATCH-26AUG23BAUMUE. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event2 outcomes

Baumgartner vs Muerner

·Sports·ends Sep 6, 2026

vol cum

$18.1k

vol 24h

$14.3k

outcomes

ends

Sep 6, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

Sam Kydd Baumgartner

rank #1

84¢

▲ 84.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$9k

vol 24h

$8.2k

spread

0.02

ends

Sep 6, 2026

If Sam Kydd Baumgartner wins the Baumgartner vs Muerner professional tennis match in the 2026 M25 Lausanne Round of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Aug 22, 2026opencloses · Sep 6, 2026

Sam Kydd Baumgartner · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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