What is the current probability for "Castagnola vs Cerny"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Castagnola vs Cerny": Luca Castagnola 99%, Matyas Cerny 1% (top 2 of 2 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/18/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXITFMATCH-26JUL04CASCER. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event2 outcomes

Castagnola vs Cerny

·Sports·ends Jul 18, 2026

vol cum

$160.7k

vol 24h

$160.7k

outcomes

ends

Jul 18, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

Luca Castagnola

rank #1 · resolved: yes

99¢

▲ 99.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$116.3k

vol 24h

$116.3k

spread

1.00

ends

Jul 18, 2026

If Luca Castagnola wins the Castagnola vs Cerny professional tennis match in the 2026 M15 Umag Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jul 4, 2026closedresolved · Jul 4, 2026

Luca Castagnola · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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