Question 1

What is the current probability for "Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, 2026"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, 2026" are At least 215,000 67%, At least 220,000 42%, At least 225,000 17% — 2 of 10 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 7/16/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26JUL09. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, 2026

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