What is the current probability for "Michigan's 12th District margin of victory"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Michigan's 12th District margin of victory": Democrats, 52+ pts 35%, Democrats, 58+ pts 15%, Democrats, 34+ pts 0% (top 3 of 9 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 11/3/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXMIDTERMMOV-MI12D. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event9 outcomes

Michigan's 12th District margin of victory

·Elections·ends Nov 3, 2027

vol cum

$2.4k

vol 24h

outcomes

ends

Nov 3, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 9

marketselected outcome

Democrats, 52+ pts

rank #1

United States

35¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.2k

vol 24h

spread

0.05

ends

Nov 3, 2027

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Michigan's 12th District by 52 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · May 5, 2026opencloses · Nov 3, 2027

prices over time · Democrats, 52+ pts highlighted

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history