Question 1

What is the current probability for "When will the next hurricane form?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "When will the next hurricane form?" are Before Nov 1, 2026 90%, Before Oct 1, 2026 79%, Before Oct 15, 2026 79% — 2 of 8 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 12/8/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXNEXTHURDATE-26DEC01. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

When will the next hurricane form?

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