Will the DOJ fine Nvidia over the Groq deal in 2026?
As of 11:53 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, Kalshi prices “Will the DOJ fine Nvidia over the Groq deal in 2026?” at 3%. The market has no Kalshi-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi and Opinion.
If the U.S. Department of Justice announces a fine or civil/criminal monetary penalty imposed on Nvidia, or agreed to by Nvidia in a settlement, concerning the Groq licensing deal announced on December 24, 2025 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An agreed settlement can qualify before court approval. Investigations, information demands, subpoenas, civil investigative demands, requests for penalties, statements about possible future fines, nonmonetary relief, and unrelated fines do NOT count.
