What is the current probability for "Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?": Haley Stevens, 3-6% 17%, Abdul El-Sayed, 0-3% 15%, Abdul El-Sayed, 3-6% 13% (top 3 of 13 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/4/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event13 outcomes

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

·Elections·ends Aug 4, 2027

vol cum

$161.7k

vol 24h

$22.4k

outcomes

ends

Aug 4, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 13

marketselected outcome

Haley Stevens, 3-6%

rank #1

United States

17¢

▲ 7.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$7.5k

vol 24h

$2.5k

spread

0.03

ends

Aug 4, 2027

If the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jun 8, 2026opencloses · Aug 4, 2027

Haley Stevens, 3-6% · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history