Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
As of 17:06 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, Kalshi prices “Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?” at 4% (+1pp in 24h). The market has $23 in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Predict.
If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran. Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.
