Will James Talarico drop out?
As of 18:12 UTC on 12 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will James Talarico drop out?” at 1% (+1pp in 24h). The market has $13.2k in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi and Polymarket.
If James Talarico drops out of the 2026 Texas Senate race before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
"Dropped out" means any of the following: James Talarico announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign James Talarico files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities James Talarico publicly states they are no longer seeking the office James Talarico endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running James Talarico is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal The following do NOT constitute dropping out: Losing a primary or election Failing to qualify for debates or ballots Temporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing Being eliminated through the normal election process Reducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate Key provisions: Once someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter "Suspending" a campaign is treated as dropping out unless James Talarico explicitly states they remain a candidate For primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party's primary Withdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot
