Question 1

What is the current probability for "What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?"?

Accepted Answer

pdata aggregates live probability data for "What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?" from kalshi. See the markets list on this page for current values, refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 7/8/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

Markets

Between 10% and 19.99%

Below 10%

Between 20% and 29.99%

Between 30% and 39.99%

Above 60%

Between 50% and 60%

Between 40% and 49.99%