What is the current probability for "Temperature in Austin on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Temperature in Austin on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?" are 97° or above 25% — 3 of 10 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/27/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTEMPAUSH-26JUL2016. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event10 outcomes

Temperature in Austin on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

·Climate and Weather·ends Jul 27, 2026

vol cum

$22.5k

vol 24h

$22.5k

outcomes

ends

Jul 27, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

marketselected outcome

94° or above

rank #1 · resolved: yes

United States

99¢

▲ 5.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$124

vol 24h

$124

spread

1.00

ends

Jul 27, 2026

If the temperature recorded at Austin, TX for Jul 20, 2026 4 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KAUS), is above 93.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jul 20, 2026closedresolved · Jul 20, 2026

94° or above · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history