What is the current probability for "Temperature in Austin on Jul 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Temperature in Austin on Jul 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?" are 104° or above 3% — 5 of 10 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/28/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTEMPAUSH-26JUL2117. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event10 outcomes

Temperature in Austin on Jul 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

·Climate and Weather·ends Jul 28, 2026

vol cum

$20.1k

vol 24h

$20.1k

outcomes

ends

Jul 28, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

marketselected outcome

95° or above

rank #1 · resolved: yes

99¢

▲ 99.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.8k

vol 24h

$1.8k

spread

1.00

ends

Jul 28, 2026

If the temperature recorded at Austin, TX for Jul 21, 2026 5 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KAUS), is above 94.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jul 21, 2026closedresolved · Jul 21, 2026

95° or above · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history