What is the current probability for "Temperature in Chicago on Jul 19, 2026 at 4am EDT?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Temperature in Chicago on Jul 19, 2026 at 4am EDT?" are 65° or above 93% — 5 of 10 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/26/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTEMPCHIH-26JUL1904. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event10 outcomes

Temperature in Chicago on Jul 19, 2026 at 4am EDT?

·Climate and Weather·ends Jul 26, 2026

vol cum

$17.9k

vol 24h

$17.9k

outcomes

ends

Jul 26, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

marketselected outcome

63° or above

rank #1 · resolved: yes

United States

99¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$100

vol 24h

$100

spread

1.00

ends

Jul 26, 2026

If the temperature recorded at Chicago, IL for Jul 19, 2026 4 AM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KORD), is above 62.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jul 19, 2026closedresolved · Jul 19, 2026

63° or above · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history