What is the current probability for "Temperature in Chicago on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Temperature in Chicago on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?" are 81° or above 5% — 3 of 10 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/27/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTEMPCHIH-26JUL2016. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event10 outcomes

Temperature in Chicago on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

·Climate and Weather·ends Jul 27, 2026

vol cum

$10.7k

vol 24h

$10.7k

outcomes

ends

Jul 27, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

marketselected outcome

77° or above

rank #1 · resolved: yes

United States

99¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.1k

vol 24h

$1.1k

spread

1.00

ends

Jul 27, 2026

If the temperature recorded at Chicago, IL for Jul 20, 2026 4 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KORD), is above 76.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jul 20, 2026closedresolved · Jul 20, 2026

77° or above · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history