What is the current probability for "Temperature in Chicago Metro Area on Oct 4, 2026 at 9pm EDT?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Temperature in Chicago Metro Area on Oct 4, 2026 at 9pm EDT?" are 60° or above 50%, 59° or above 15%, 62° or above 4% — 2 of 10 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Oct 12, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTEMPCHIHS-26OCT0421. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event10 outcomes

Temperature in Chicago Metro Area on Oct 4, 2026 at 9pm EDT?

·Climate and Weather·ends Oct 12, 2026

vol cum

$12.5k

vol 24h

$12.5k

outcomes

ends

Oct 12, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

marketselected outcome

58° or above

rank #1 · resolved: yes

99¢

▲ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.3k

vol 24h

$1.3k

spread

1.00

ends

Oct 12, 2026

If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 4, 2026 at 9 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 57.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Oct 5, 2026closedresolved · Oct 5, 2026

58° or above · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history