What is the current probability for "Temperature in Washington DC on Aug 4, 2026 at 11am EDT?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Temperature in Washington DC on Aug 4, 2026 at 11am EDT?" are 84° or above 49%, 83° or above 9% — 5 of 10 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/11/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTEMPDCH-26AUG0411. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event10 outcomes

Temperature in Washington DC on Aug 4, 2026 at 11am EDT?

·Climate and Weather·ends Aug 11, 2026

vol cum

$19.8k

vol 24h

$19.8k

outcomes

ends

Aug 11, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

marketselected outcome

77° or above

rank #1 · resolved: yes

United States

99¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1k

vol 24h

$1k

spread

1.00

ends

Aug 11, 2026

If the temperature recorded at Washington, DC for Aug 4, 2026 11 AM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KDCA), is above 76.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Aug 4, 2026closedresolved · Aug 4, 2026

77° or above · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history