What is the current probability for "Temperature in Miami on Oct 4, 2026 at 2am EDT?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Temperature in Miami on Oct 4, 2026 at 2am EDT?" are 82° or above 80% — 2 of 10 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Oct 11, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTEMPMIAH-26OCT0402. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event10 outcomes

Temperature in Miami on Oct 4, 2026 at 2am EDT?

·Climate and Weather·ends Oct 11, 2026

vol cum

$12.8k

vol 24h

$12.8k

outcomes

ends

Oct 11, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

marketselected outcome

81° or above

rank #1 · resolved: yes

99¢

▲ 6.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$3.4k

vol 24h

$3.4k

spread

1.00

ends

Oct 11, 2026

If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 4, 2026 at 2 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 80.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Oct 4, 2026closedresolved · Oct 4, 2026

81° or above · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history