What is the current probability for "New York City temperature on Jul 4, 2026 at 9pm EDT?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "New York City temperature on Jul 4, 2026 at 9pm EDT?" are 92° or above 10% — 6 of 24 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/12/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTEMPNYCH-26JUL0421. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event24 outcomes

New York City temperature on Jul 4, 2026 at 9pm EDT?

·Climate and Weather·ends Jul 12, 2026

vol cum

$16.1k

vol 24h

$16.1k

outcomes

ends

Jul 12, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 24

marketselected outcome

78° or above

rank #1 · resolved: yes

99¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$716

vol 24h

$716

spread

1.00

ends

Jul 12, 2026

If the temperature recorded at Central Park, New York City for Jul 4, 2026 9 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KNYC), is above 77.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jul 5, 2026closedresolved · Jul 5, 2026

78° or above · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history