Question 1

What is the current probability for "How long will Trump speak for at his July 4th rally?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Kalshi odds for "How long will Trump speak for at his July 4th rally?": 35 or above 87%, 40 or above 82%, 45 or above 71% (top 3 of 10 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 7/12/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTRUMPMENTIONDURATION-JUL0526. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.