Question 1

What is the current probability for "What will Trump say in July?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "What will Trump say in July?" are Predict / Prediction 94%, World Cup 94%, Dead Country 92% — 2 of 33 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 8/1/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.