What is the current probability for "Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 3, 2026"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 3, 2026": Above 81,000 MW 99%, Above 82,000 MW 84%, Above 83,000 MW 46% (top 3 of 16 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Sep 11, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTXERCOTPEAKD-26SEP04. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event16 outcomes

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 3, 2026

·Economy·ends Sep 11, 2026

vol cum

$19.9k

vol 24h

$15k

outcomes

ends

Sep 11, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 16

marketselected outcome

Above 81,000 MW

rank #1

99¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.1k

vol 24h

spread

0.01

ends

Sep 11, 2026

If the the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 3, 2026 is above 81,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Sep 3, 2026opencloses · Sep 11, 2026

Above 81,000 MW · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history