Question 1

What is the current probability for "Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 15, 2026"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 15, 2026" are Above 85,000 MW 92%, Above 85,500 MW 90%, Above 86,000 MW 78% — 6 of 15 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on Sep 23, 2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTXERCOTPEAKD-26SEP16. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.