What is the current probability for "Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 29, 2026"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 29, 2026" are Above 82,000 MW 10%, Above 82,500 MW 10%, Above 81,500 MW 9% — 3 of 19 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Oct 7, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTXERCOTPEAKD-26SEP30. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event19 outcomes

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 29, 2026

·Economy·ends Oct 7, 2026

vol cum

$13.9k

vol 24h

$13.9k

outcomes

ends

Oct 7, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 19

marketselected outcome

Above 78,500 MW

rank #1 · resolved: yes

United States

99¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$258

vol 24h

$258

spread

1.00

ends

Oct 7, 2026

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 29, 2026 is above 78,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Sep 29, 2026closedresolved · Sep 30, 2026

Above 78,500 MW · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history