What is the current probability for "10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 12, 2026?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 12, 2026?" are 4.66% or above 92%, 4.6% or above 87%, 4.68% or above 78% — 4 of 15 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/14/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXUST10AD-26AUG12. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.