What is the current probability for "10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 6, 2026?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 6, 2026?" are 5.24% or above 91%, 5.26% or above 90%, 5.28% or above 73% — 4 of 15 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Oct 8, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXUST10AD-26OCT06. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event15 outcomes

10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 6, 2026?

·Finance·ends Oct 8, 2026

vol cum

$10.5k

vol 24h

$10.5k

outcomes

ends

Oct 8, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 15

marketselected outcome

5.16% or above

rank #1

99¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1k

vol 24h

$1k

spread

0.03

ends

Oct 8, 2026

If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.15% on Oct 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Oct 5, 2026opencloses · Oct 8, 2026

5.16% or above · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history